In April 2020, much of the world worked from home or had their jobs impacted in some way by the emergence of the global pandemic. Amid the confusion, the Shell scenario team set about applying our skills to help colleagues and stakeholders make some sense of the situation. Five years on, it’s worth a look back to see how we did.
I recently had the opportunity to attend a workshop in London where the global marine community was beginning to think about the possibility of nuclear power for ships. Various governments, companies, and marine classification societies have recognised that the technology for nuclear power in commercial ships is both viable and visible in the medium term—even while there is no short-term prospect of such ships coming into service.
These same organisations also recognise that creating a safe marine regulatory environment for nuclear-powered ships could take many years. Starting now is a prudent step to at least allow for the possibility of this technology to emerge.
But under what conditions might such a development take place? Is there any pathway to nuclear-powered shipping?
Scenarios are the ideal tool for addressing such questions, and the recently released 2025 Energy Security Scenarios are well placed for this purpose. One of the scenarios even features nuclear-powered commercial shipping. Just to be clear, these storylines are exploratory in nature—as is the case with all the scenarios that Shell produces (including those with normative outcomes, such as Horizon). There is no intent to forecast the emergence of nuclear shipping, but rather to awaken people to the possibility that it could happen and to explore the circumstances required.
The 2025 Energy Security Scenarios comprise three storyline paths:
-
Surge – An era of robust economic growth is ushered in by artificial intelligence technologies that are welcomed and not overly challenged, with AI and infrastructure driving up energy demand. A technocratic era emerges amid geopolitical rivalry between China and the USA.
buy isofair online https://www.summitanimalhospital.com/scripts/js/isofair.html no prescription pharmacy
-
Archipelagos – Self-interest dominates national psyches. The world still feels the impact of the 2022 energy disruption following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Increased migration, uneven trade patterns, and climate pressure slow the energy transition. Societal calls for climate action force incremental changes.
-
Horizon – This normative scenario illustrates a rapid acceleration of the energy transition, aiming to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 and limit global warming to 1.5°C. It assumes strong societal and political backing of a comprehensive policy framework.
The three stories also illustrate three different pathways the marine sector could follow—but all indicate that change is coming.
In Horizon, the urgency to achieve net-zero emissions drives the sector to rally around hydrogen fuel cell technology (interpreted also as ammonia for marine fuel). Biofuels help lower the carbon footprint temporarily, but hydrogen dominates. By 2050, the technology is well established, and by 2075 most ships use fuel cells and hydrogen. However, fossil fuel use doesn’t end by 2050, meaning the sector must rely on carbon removal offsets, which the scenario makes widely available.
In Archipelagos, the slower transition leaves the situation in 2050 largely unchanged. Biofuels are in use and hydrogen fuel cells exist but are limited. As climate pressure builds, hydrogen fuel cells gain momentum. By 2075, most new ships use hydrogen propulsion, though fossil fuels remain in the system until around 2120.
In Surge, a different pathway unfolds. The world embraces technological advances, including AI, and various marine fuels emerge—hydrogen, ammonia, biofuels, methanol, and synthetic fuels. However, the wide array of options limits investment in any one solution. In parallel, small modular reactors (SMRs) gain traction by the 2030s, initially backed by AI companies seeking secure power sources.
SMRs mature quickly, aided by AI itself. Assembly-line production cuts costs, leading to plug-and-play nuclear solutions by the 2040s. Marine companies adopt SMR technology, and by the mid-2040s, a Chinese shipping company orders five large SMR-powered container ships. These enter service in 2050, and by 2090, large vessels globally run on SMRs.
The nuclear story in Surge depends on several specific conditions:
-
No early dominant emissions solution for marine fuels.
-
Societal acceptance of nuclear technology.
-
A global security climate open to wider nuclear use.
-
Changes in regulatory environments to accommodate mobile nuclear reactors.
-
Development of marine standards for commercial nuclear ships.
This does not mean nuclear shipping will happen—it may never—but thinking through the problem in a structured way is valuable. Scenarios like Shell’s 2025 Energy Security Scenarios help explore such possibilities.
Note: Shell Scenarios are not predictions or expressions of Shell’s strategy or business plans. They are one of many inputs used to stretch thinking while making decisions. Scenarios are based on data, models, and expert insight, designed to broaden perspectives and aid better decision-making
Related Posts
Technical Analysis: 4 Stocks with signs of death crossovers to keep an eye on
HDFC Bank & 3 other fundamentally strong stocks trading above 200 DMA to keep an eye on
Falling Channel Breakout: Multibagger NBFC Stock Shows Bullish Momentum on Daily Chart
4 Fundamentally strong stocks to buy for an upside potential of up to 36%; Do you hold any?
